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среда, 7 января 2026 г.

**A Polycentric Resilience Model of the Republic of Moldova

 

**A Polycentric Resilience Model of the Republic of Moldova

in the Logic of Fifth-Generation Warfare (5GW)**


1. Introduction. A Paradigm Shift

Contemporary threats to the national resilience of the Republic of Moldova are nonlinear, distributed, and non-military in nature. Fifth-generation warfare (5GW) does not involve a front line, a formal declaration of war, or direct military confrontation. Its primary objective is the loss of governability, degradation of infrastructure, and the destruction of the state’s capacity for self-sustainment.

Under these conditions, the classical monocentric state model, in which key governance, infrastructure, and logistics functions are concentrated in a single capital city, becomes a structural vulnerability.

This doctrine proposes a polycentric resilience model, based on:

  • functional specialization of territories;

  • a hierarchically connected network of sub-centers;

  • preservation of a strategic center in Chișinău alongside the redistribution of operational functions.


2. The Core Principle: Distribution, Not Duplication

Polycentricity in the logic of 5GW does not imply:

  • federalization of governance;

  • the creation of “mini-capitals”;

  • full duplication of state functions at the regional level.

On the contrary, the doctrine is grounded in the following fundamental principle:

Resilience is achieved not by duplicating everything everywhere,
but by functional distribution with redundancy limited to critical nodes.

Accordingly:

  • strategic functions remain centralized;

  • operational, social, and infrastructural functions are distributed;

  • critical systems are designed with reserve circuits.


3. The Role of Chișinău in the Polycentric Model

Chișinău retains its status as the single strategic center of the state.

Functions that cannot be territorially fragmented include:

  • strategic state governance;

  • national security and force coordination;

  • foreign policy and international commitments;

  • macro-financial and fiscal systems;

  • the unified digital architecture of the state;

  • supreme judicial institutions;

  • national registries, archives, and databases;

  • systemic coordination of infrastructure (energy, water, communications, transport).

Within this model, Chișinău serves as the decisional and semantic core of the state, but not as its sole operational locus.


4. Sub-Centers as Pillars of Resilience

4.1. General Characteristics of Sub-Centers

Sub-centers are specialized regional nodes with clearly defined roles within the national resilience system. They:

  • do not compete with the capital;

  • do not duplicate strategic functions;

  • are interconnected through horizontal links;

  • are integrated into the railway and infrastructure network.


4.2. Fălești — Northwestern Reserve and Logistics Node

Functional role:
internal reserve of governance and logistics.

Key functions:

  • regional crisis response center;

  • storage and distribution facilities;

  • reserve data capacities (non-critical level);

  • training of personnel for logistics and infrastructure systems.

Fălești constitutes the internal rear of resilience, ensuring system functionality during partial disruption of central nodes.


4.3. Telenești — Agro-Administrative Node of Food Security

Functional role:
management of agricultural territories and food security.

Key functions:

  • regional coordination of agricultural production;

  • processing and storage;

  • agro-logistics;

  • monitoring of soils, water resources, and climate risks.

Telenești ensures the structural independence of the national food circuit.


4.4. Orhei — Industrial and Logistics Node on the Eastern Axis

Functional role:
industrial production and transport logistics.

Key functions:

  • industrial platforms;

  • infrastructure maintenance and repair;

  • redistribution of flows in case of overload or disruption in Chișinău;

  • logistics for eastern directions.

Orhei functions as an operational node of the system, ensuring continuity of processes.


4.5. Ungheni — Western Integration and Cross-Border Node

Functional role:
connection with Romania and the European Union; adaptation of standards.

Key functions:

  • customs and logistics operations;

  • certification and harmonization with EU regulations;

  • educational and technical centers;

  • reserve humanitarian corridor.

Ungheni operates as a transformer of external standards, not a symbolic showcase.


4.6. Nisporeni — Ecological and Water Resource Stabilizer

Functional role:
management of natural and hydrological resources.

Key functions:

  • administration of river basins;

  • decentralized water treatment and distribution facilities;

  • pollution monitoring;

  • ecological territorial planning.

Nisporeni provides environmental security and landscape stability.


4.7. Hîncești — Social, Medical, and Humanitarian Hub

Functional role:
population protection and social resilience.

Key functions:

  • Level II–III medical services;

  • evacuation and rehabilitation centers;

  • social protection services;

  • reserve hospital capacities.

Hîncești forms the humanitarian contour of resilience.


5. Railway Infrastructure as the System’s Skeleton

Railway infrastructure and connection points with Romania and Ukraine are understood not as elements of a transit economy, but as:

  • reserve supply channels;

  • humanitarian corridors;

  • mechanisms for flow redistribution;

  • components of crisis and mobilization infrastructure.

Within this model:

The railway is the skeleton of resilience,
sub-centers are the operational nodes,
and Chișinău is the strategic brain.


6. The Doctrine’s Core Formula

The polycentric resilience model of the Republic of Moldova, in the logic of 5GW, rests on the following principles:

  1. Strategic governance remains centralized.

  2. Operational and vital functions are distributed.

  3. Sub-centers are specialized, not universal.

  4. Infrastructure is designed to function under failure and degradation.

  5. Economic development follows the logic of resilience, not the reverse.


7. Conclusion

The proposed model is not a conventional “development plan.” It represents an architecture of survival and governability for the state under conditions of prolonged instability and non-military external pressure.

In the logic of fifth-generation warfare, resilience precedes growth, and polycentricity is no longer a choice—it is a necessity.

The 5GW Metropolis: A New Form of Territorial Governance

1. From the Classical Metropolis to the 5GW Metropolis

In twentieth-century planning theory, the metropolis was primarily understood as a spatial and economic construct:
a dense urban core surrounded by zones of influence, labor markets, transport corridors, and functional agglomerations. Its logic was based on growth, concentration, and economic efficiency under conditions of relative stability.

In the context of fifth-generation warfare (5GW), this understanding becomes structurally obsolete.

The 5GW environment is characterized by:

  • the absence of a clear front line;

  • permanent non-military pressure;

  • hybrid disruption of infrastructure, governance, and social cohesion;

  • prolonged degradation rather than short-term crisis.

Under such conditions, a metropolis designed for growth becomes a systemic vulnerability.


2. Defining the 5GW Metropolis

In the logic of 5GW, a metropolis is no longer a “large city” or an agglomeration of settlements.

The 5GW Metropolis is a distributed system of governability,
life-support, and resilience,
operating as a single organism
under conditions of persistent instability and infrastructure degradation.

Its defining feature is not expansion, but the ability to:

  • preserve decision-making capacity;

  • maintain essential services;

  • redistribute functions during partial failures;

  • prevent systemic collapse through spatial and functional redundancy.


3. Decoupling the Center from Physical Concentration

A key transformation in the 5GW Metropolis is the separation of strategic centrality from physical concentration.

In this model:

  • the capital (Chișinău) remains the strategic and semantic core;

  • operational functions are spatially distributed across specialized sub-centers;

  • governability is maintained through hierarchical coordination, not physical proximity.

The center becomes a node of meaning and coordination, rather than a bottleneck of execution.


4. The Metropolis as a Network, Not a Territory

Unlike classical metropolitan regions, the 5GW Metropolis is not defined by continuous urban fabric or administrative borders.

It is constituted by:

  • a network of specialized sub-centers;

  • critical infrastructure corridors (rail, energy, water, communications);

  • redundant logistical and humanitarian routes;

  • interoperable governance and data systems.

This results in a non-contiguous, network-based metropolis, capable of functioning even when individual nodes are degraded or isolated.


5. Reversal of the Economic Paradigm

In traditional metropolitan planning:

economy → growth → infrastructure → governance

In the 5GW Metropolis:

resilience → governability → infrastructure → economy (if conditions allow)

Economic activity no longer defines the metropolitan structure; instead, it follows the architecture of resilience.
Growth becomes conditional, secondary, and reversible.


6. Governance Logic of the 5GW Metropolis

The governance of a 5GW Metropolis is characterized by:

  • centralized strategic decision-making;

  • distributed operational execution;

  • specialization of territorial nodes;

  • redundancy only where failure would be catastrophic;

  • permanent readiness for partial system degradation.

This model avoids both extremes:

  • total centralization (which creates single points of failure);

  • full decentralization (which fragments authority and coherence).

Instead, it establishes a hierarchically coordinated network state.


7. The Chișinău Metropolis as a Prototype

Within the Republic of Moldova, the proposed polycentric resilience model effectively constitutes a 5GW Metropolis, with Chișinău as its strategic core and a system of sub-centers ensuring operational continuity.

This configuration should be understood not as a temporary adaptation, but as:

  • a new territorial governance paradigm;

  • a prototype for state survival in prolonged hybrid pressure;

  • a scalable model applicable beyond Moldova.


8. Conclusion

The 5GW Metropolis represents a fundamental shift in territorial governance. It replaces the logic of concentration and growth with a logic of resilience, distribution, and controlled redundancy.

In an environment where instability is permanent and pressure is non-military, the metropolis becomes a form of statehood, not an urban phenomenon.


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